http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_wertheim/09/17/no.punt/index.html?eref=sihpT1
People do need to go for it more on 4th down...
Thursday, September 17, 2009
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what does he think this is madden....
ReplyDeletei like this because its interesting but you better have a good defense if you are doing this (50% chance is a chance some teams can't take if 30 yards is the difference between the other team scoring and not).
one piece he falied to really meantioned but he alluded to is that your chances of converting multiple 4th downs in one drive. he states that they got one 4th down but had to go for it again in the same drive and failed... well the chances of converting 2 4th downs in the same drive is 25% not 50% and 3 is 12.% and so on... once you get a new drive you start over with a 50% chance.... if you are doing the math thinking that every over 4th down you convert, that may be only true if they occur within separate drives....
It does feel like he's playing a real-life Madden. I see what he's doing though, basically making every 1st down a 4 attempt drive, so you can do things like a draw on 3rd and 12, since you'll have the 4th down for a hopefully shorter passing play. It's still crazy to go for every 4th down on principle, you've gotta have some discretion.
ReplyDeleteAll of that being said, coaches need to go for it on 4th down more. If you've got Adrian Peterson and it's 4th and goal on the 1, you should probably go for the TD all of the time. Best back in the league, good defense, don't kick the FG. There's a happy medium somewhere (maybe using the stats generated from the website below), but aggression in going for it needs to increase.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html